After a strong Thanksgiving weekend, the box office is about to come crashing down. Post Thanksgiving Weekend is historically slow, because nothing noteworthy is typically released then and holdovers stumble but still lead. This year ought to be no different. Here is how I predict it will play out.
It opened to $56.6 million last weekend, which is a bit below Frozen, which opened Thanksgiving Weekend of 2013 and dropped 53.1% in its second frame. A drop around that steep would be the most likely scenario for Moana.
2. Fantastic Beasts
Fantastic Beasts dipped a shockingly light 39.4% last weekend, but the Pre-Thanksgiving Weekend champions usually fall pretty hard in the Post Thanksgiving Weekend, like most everything else. I predict a drop of about 57%.
3. Doctor Strange
There is not much to talk about. As I mentioned, holdovers tend to fall hard on Post Thanksgiving weekend, so I am predicting a drop of about 51%.
Hardly anyone has heard of this, so it will open really low, but it will likely end up opening between $5 million and $6 million.
Arrival is likely to fall around 53% or so, but it should be enough to stay in the top five.
Friday Update: Incarnate earned a weak $120K from Thursday night premieres suggesting that half of the $5.5 million I predicted is what it will likely open to.
Here are my official predictions for the weekend.
1. Moana: $26.5 million (-53%)
2. Fantastic Beasts: $19.5 million (-57%)
3. Doctor Strange: $6.7 (-51%)
4. Incarnate: $5.5 million
5. Arrival: $5.4 million (-53%)