The weekend is offering four newcomers, three of which are nationwide expansions. However, none of them look like they will break out too high, which will give Rogue One another easy victory. Here is what is likely to happen.
1. Rogue One
There is not much to talk about here. Rogue One is likely to take another small dip, likely as light as it did last weekend as there is no direct competition.
Sing ought to decline light enough to retain its second place slot for the third weekend in a row. The animated hit has been performing solidly throughout the week and should earn a bit over $30 million this weekend.
3. Hidden Figures
Hidden Figures ought to lead the newcomers. It has been performing very well in limited release and should expand with a strong debut. However, it will have its breakout potential a bit more limited than it would be if it had more theaters to open in. Reviews so far are great, too. It will likely see an opening weekend in the low to mid $20 millions.
4. La La Land
Like Hidden Figures, it is also expanding nationwide and has been doing very well in limited release. It should be in fourth place in the mid to high teens.
5. Underworld: Blood Wars
This is likely to underwhelm commercially. This is the fifth entry in the Underworld franchise and a lot of people are groaning at the prospect of a fifth and wishing the franchise would have died a couple films ago. It is likely to open with $10 million to $12 million.
Outside the Top Five
A Monster Calls is likely to not open very high despite positive early reviews due to the fact that not much awareness has been raised. It is likely to open between $6 million and $7 million.
Friday Update: Hidden Figures earned $1.2 million from Thursday night. That puts it on track to earn around the $22.8 million I predicted for the weekend.
Saturday Update: It now looks like a very close three way race for the number one spot this weekend. Hidden Figures was in the lead yesterday with $7.6 million, suggesting it might have a shot at opening above $25 million.
In second place, Rogue One earned $6.1 million and is looking at a steeper drop than expected and should earn between $20 million and $25 million.
Sing was in third place yesterday with $5.1 million and is looking to fall in the same range as Rogue One this weekend.
In fourth place yesterday was Underworld: Blood Wars, which had an opening day of $4.9 million which will likely lead to an opening weekend between $12 million and $14 million.
La La Land was in fifth place yesterday with $3.1 million suggesting an opening weekend noticeably below the $16.5 million I initially predicted.
Here are my official predictions for this weekend.
1. Rogue One: $38.1 million (-23%)
2. Sing: $31.1 million (-28%)
3. Hidden Figures: $22.8 million
4. La La Land: $16.5 million
5. Underworld: Blood Wars: $11.5 million
Outside the Top Five:
A Monster Calls: $6.1 million