This weekend, five newcomers are entering the marketplace. Among those, Patriot's Day is the only one that is expanding from a previous limited release. That one will likely be the only newcomer in the top five. In fact, I expect there to be a close four-way battle for first place this weekend. Here is what is likely to happen.
1. Hidden Figures
This weekend will likely see Hidden Figures atop the box office. With the reviews it has been receiving and its performance throughout the week as well as the fact that it is gaining some more theaters, it will likely face a second weekend drop about as light as that of The Revenant last year, maybe a bit lighter.
2. Rogue One
Rogue One faced a much steeper drop than I anticipated (as did most every other holdover last weekend). This was likely because of the snow. To make up for that, it is likely to experience a very light decline to make up for that. I am predicting a drop of about 21% this weekend.
3. Patriots Day
This is likely to have a decent opening. It has strong early reviews, which will not hurt. There is, however, a possibility that fatigue may set in with films based on real life events. I am predicting an opening weekend in the mid to high teens.
Like with Rogue One, it will compensate for its unexpectedly steep drop last weekend with a light dip this weekend, one that will likely put it between $16 million and $17 million this weekend.
5. La La Land
It had a decent nationwide expansion last weekend in which it added on $10.1 million. It is likely to experience another bump this weekend thanks to the love it received at the Golden Globes. It will likely earn between $11 million and $12 million this weekend.
Outside of the Top Five: The other four newcomers do not look like they will be so lucky. Gangster drama, Live by Night, has been advertised fairly well, but its mediocre reviews will not help it earn much. It will likely open between $10 million and $11 million. The Bye Bye Man has horrible reviews and the fact that its release date has been moved back from last June is not a good sign. Generally, moving the release date more than a couple months reflects lack of confidence in the project. It will likely open to about $9 million or so. Sleepless was not very well advertised and there is very little to go off of as far as early reviews. It will likely open between $6 million and $7 million. Lastly, kids film, Monster Trucks, looks to be in poor shape. Kids films with little awareness do not open well. Early reviews are mediocre at this point but not terrible. Still, at best, it is likely to open in the ballpark of commercial and critical disaster, Norm of the North, which came out this time last year. A $4 million opening is likely what will end up happening.
Friday Update: Last night, Patriots Day earned $560K and could still be on track for the opening weekend I predicted. The Bye Bye Man earned $400K last night which puts it on pace to open a bit below the $9 million I predicted. Live by Night brought in $325K which suggests that it is not likely to open as high as I predicted.
Saturday Update: Hidden Figures hung onto first place on Friday with $5.5 million and is looking like it could earn roughly what I predicted for this weekend.
The Bye Bye Man was in a very close second place with $5.4 million yesterday, which means it will open higher than the $9 million I expected.
In third place, Patriots Day earned a middling $4.1 million yesterday, suggesting it will fall quite short of the $17.1 million I predicted.
In fourth, La La Land is looking at a bigger bounce this weekend than I originally anticipated as it, too, has earned $4.1 million yesterday.
Rounding out the top five was Rogue One which earned $3.2 million yesterday and topped Finding Dory's $486.3 million in the process and earning a total of $488.3 million to date. Since it has passed Finding Dory, it is now the number one film on the 2016 domestic chart and seventh on the all time domestic chart.
Outside of the top five, in sixth place, Sleepless earned $3 million from yesterday and is looking to open between $7 million and $9 million. In eighth place, Monster Trucks earned $2.6 million yesterday, which means it will open a bit higher than I expected, but still not above $10 million. In ninth, Live by Night earned $2 million yesterday and is looking to have an opening about half as high as the $10.6 million I predicted.
Hidden Figures: $17.9 million (-22%)
Rogue One: $17.4 million (-21%)
Patriots Day: $17.1 million
Sing: $16.2 million (-22%)
La La Land: $11.2 million (+11%)
Outside of the Top Five:
Live by Night: $10.6 million
The Bye Bye Man: $9 million
Sleepless: $6.3 million
Monster Trucks: $4 million