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I enjoy watching films and discussing them in terms of quality and how they perform financially.

This weekend, five new films are entering the marketplace, but only one is likely to debut over $10 million. Boo 2 is a sequel to last year's surprisingly successful Boo!: A Madea Halloween. The fact that this year has been horrible to sequels, especially ones to badly reviewed movies, means this will open lower than the $28.5 million the original debuted to. It will likely debut in the low to mid $20 millions. Meanwhile, Happy Death Day should fall pretty hard and end up in second place. Geostorm will likely take third place with slightly under $10 million. The marketing effort was strong, but the film looks very much like a Syfy original movie. Blade Runner 2049 should slide down to fourth, but have a light enough drop to make up for its hefty second weekend debut last weekend. The Snowman should take fifth place between $9 and $10 million. Early reviews for the film have been poor which will hurt it despite an all star cast and a strong marketing effort. Outside the top five, Only the Brave will likely debut between $4 million and $5 million with a minimal marketing effort and the fact that films based on true stories are becoming more and more common while also wearing out their welcome. The Same Kind of Different as Me will likely be in much worse shape and debut between $2 million and $3 million. Religious and faith-based films have had an awful track record this year and the box office returns are suggesting people were tired of this genre for a while. The advertisement effort has been poor as well.

Official Forecast:

1. Boo 2!: A Madea Halloween: $22.6 million

2. Happy Death Day: $10.7 million (-59%)

3. Geostorm: $9.6 million

4. Blade Runner 2049: $9.3 million (-40%)

5. The Snowman: $9.1 million

Outside the Top Five:

Only the Brave: $4.8 million

The Same Kind of Different as Me: $2.3 million

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