I have been posting my Emmy predictions and wish lists, and today the actual nominations were finally announced. So now I am going to revisit my predictions and see how well I did. I’ve gotta say: either the TV Academy is getting easier to read, or I am getting savvier, because I think this may be the best year I have ever had ergo Emmy prognostication. Here is a category-by-category breakdown of my results:
Comedy Series – 6/7 (I guessed Girls instead of Modern Family.)
I already knew the Academy liked black-ish, based on Anthony Anderson’s nomination last year, and I correctly suspected that they liked it even more this season. The love for Modern Family is fading, but it is not gone completely.
Lead Actor in a Comedy – 5/6 (I guessed Rob Lowe instead of Thomas Middleditch.)
I’m glad that I at least called Don Cheadle falling off.
Lead Actress in a Comedy – 5/6 (I guessed Lena Dunham instead of Laurie Metcalf.)
It turns out Girls would not find its way back in. Getting On is The Little Show that could.
Supporting Actor in a Comedy – 5/7 (I only had 6 picks. I guessed Adam Driver instead of Keegan-Michael Key and Matt Walsh.)
Louie Anderson was a bit of wishful thinking, but it was wishful thinking that turned out to be correct. I was really off with Girls – not only did it not make a comeback, it took a step back, with Adam Driver falling off.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy – 4/6 (I guessed Mayim Bialik and Jane Krakowski instead of Judith Light and Niecy Nash.)
I thought there was a chance Judith Light could make it in. Looks like I underestimated Getting On, and it also looks like The Big Bang Theory is fading away.
Drama Series – 6/7 (I guessed Orange is the New Black instead of The Americans.)
It turns out that The Americans is one of those rare shows that slowly creeps into the Emmy race over the course of several seasons. That is not a huge shock, except for the fact that it knocked aside Orange is the New Black.
Lead Actor in a Drama – 4/6 (I guessed Steve Buscemi and Paul Giamatti instead of Matthew Rhys and Liev Schreiber.)
The Americans Surprise continues. Liev Schreiber was up last year, so I had considered him.
Lead Actress in a Drama – 5/6 (I guessed Julianna Margulies instead of Keri Russell.)
The Americans Surprise cannot be stopped.
Supporting Actor in a Drama – 2/6 (I guessed Alan Alda, Jim Carter, Alan Cumming, and Christian Slater instead of Kit Harrington, Michael Kelly, Ben Mendelsohn, and Jon Voight.)
Now we are getting to the categories that are dragging down my average. I really thought Christian Slater would make it. The trouble is that this category just had a surplus of legitimate contenders. I considered all the ones that I missed, except for Kit Harrington, but I can see how he broke through.
Supporting Actress in a Drama – 2/6 (I guessed Uzo Aduba, Christine Baranski, Joanne Froggatt, and Rhea Seehorn instead of Maggie Smith, Maura Tierney, Maisie Williams, and Constance Zimmer.)
I am not surprised that I wasn’t perfect in this category, but I am surprised by the ways I wasn’t perfect. The Dowager Countess is obviously no shocker, and I thought Arya Stark might have a chance, but Maura Tierney? She was once nominated for ER, so I guess that didn’t come out of nowhere. But Constance Zimmer? For a Lifetime show? Wow.
Variety Talk Series – 3/6 (I guessed The Daily Show, Full Frontal, and The Late Show instead of Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, and Real Time with Bill Maher.)
This category had the most qualifiers from me, and with good reason. Without Jon Stewart, The Daily Show is out, and without Comedy Central, Stephen Colbert is out. I can’t say I ever considered Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee, though. Certainly not over Samantha Bee.
Variety Sketch Series – 5/6 (I only had 5 picks. I missed Drunk History.)
My only mistake here was that I did not guess the possibility that the field would expand. If I had, I like to think I would have selected Drunk History. Documentary Now! is my favorite correct prediction.
I will have several more thoughts about the Emmys between now and the night of the ceremony (September 18). Immediately afterward, I will start prognosticating about next year’s Emmys!
Sound off in the comments about your thoughts on this year’s crop of nominees, and check out the full list at the Emmy website.